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PHILADELPHIA

FLYERSPHI

9-5-3  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 8:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

11-4-3  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Dan Vladar
GOALTENDER

Dan Vladar

#80 | Goaltender
@
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Dan Vladar None-None 5.01 0.821 --
Jake Oettinger None-None 1.00 0.952 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.01 GAA Ldr 1.00
0.821 Save % Ldr 0.952
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
📊
STARS
0%
FLYERS --
STARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Dallas)
FlyersPHI (-3.5) 0 StarsDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

30.9%

Stars Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

PHI By 1 goal

12.1%

PHI By 2-3 goals

9.3%

DAL By 1 goal

19.7%

DAL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
4
DALLAS
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
3
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Stars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Stars (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Flyers (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o5.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 DAL @ PHI 1 - 2
Nov 15, 2025 PHI @ DAL 1 - 5
Mar 22, 2025 PHI @ DAL 2 - 3
Jan 9, 2025 DAL @ PHI 4 - 1
Jan 18, 2024 DAL @ PHI 1 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +20.6%
Dallas: 33.5% vs Philadelphia: 12.9%
Faceoff % (L5) +16.8%
Dallas: 58.5% vs Philadelphia: 41.7%
Hits (L5) +11.6% more
Philadelphia: 21.2 vs Dallas: 18.7
Blocked Shots (L5) +10.3% more
Philadelphia: 14.1 vs Dallas: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 3.0 1
DAL Score 4.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 12.6 / 14.1 12.0 / 12.0
Faceoff % 58.5 / 41.7 46.2 / 53.8
Hits 18.7 / 21.2 23.0 / 32.0
Power Play % 33.5 / 12.9 50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 24.5 / 26.8 28.0 / 21.0
Takeaways 5.0 / 4.7 3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
78%MONEY22%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
PHI
DAL
PHI
ML
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-3
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
TTL
100% 3-0
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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