MERCYHURST
LAKERSMERC
2-1 | Road
55
CANISIUS
GOLDEN GRIFFINSCAN
1-2 | Home
58
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
100%
LAKERS
--
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
MERCYHURST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Mercyhurst)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MERC -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MERC)
MERC By 1-7 points
27.4%
MERC By 8-14 points
21.6%
CAN By 1-7 points
20.1%
CAN By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercyhurst
78
MERCYHURST
Canisius
74
CANISIUS
Simulated Score
Mercyhurst
68
MERCYHURST
Canisius
75
CANISIUS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lakers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Griffins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lakers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Golden Griffins (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o135.5
Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 12, 2025
MERC @ CAN
55 - 58
Nov 13, 2024
CAN @ MERC
52 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+41.5% more
Mercyhurst: 7.9
vs
Canisius: 4.6
Assists (L5)
+41.4% more
Mercyhurst: 19.7
vs
Canisius: 11.5
Rebounding (L5)
+15.1% more
Mercyhurst: 35.4
vs
Canisius: 30.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
Mercyhurst: 49.0%
vs
Canisius: 44.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MERC Score
78.0
55
CAN Score
74.0
58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 35.8
23.0 / 21.0
Assists
11.5 / 19.7
9.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.7 / 2.9
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 49.0
49.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
70.3 / 66.3
58.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
30.0 / 35.4
28.0 / 27.0
Steals
4.6 / 7.9
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 11.7
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MERC
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
CAN
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -7.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MERC
Advantage
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
CAN
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: -7.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.7
CAN
8-21-0
O: 27.6% / U: 72.4%
Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAN
MERC
CAN
MERC
ML
55%
17-14
59%
20-14
68%
21-10
79%
26-7
ATS
65%
20-11
62%
21-13
68%
21-10
79%
26-7
TTL
58%
18-13
53%
18-16
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
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