SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
JACKRABBITSSDST
2-1 | Road
69
OREGON
DUCKSORE
2-0 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
JACKRABBITS
100%
DUCKS
0%
JACKRABBITS
--
DUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Oregon)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)
SDST By 1-7 points
24.3%
SDST By 8-14 points
13.7%
ORE By 1-7 points
26.2%
ORE By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
South Dakota State
71
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Oregon
72
OREGON
Simulated Score
South Dakota State
71
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Oregon
78
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Ducks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Ducks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Ducks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Ducks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 12, 2025
SDST @ ORE
69 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+155.0% more
Oregon: 5.9
vs
South Dakota State: 2.3
Steals (L5)
+29.5% more
Oregon: 7.4
vs
South Dakota State: 5.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.3%
Oregon: 67.7%
vs
South Dakota State: 65.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.4%
South Dakota State: 30.6%
vs
Oregon: 27.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SDST Score
71.0
69
ORE Score
72.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.1 / 30.6
38.0 / 32.0
Assists
11.0 / 11.7
16.0 / 8.0
Blocks
5.9 / 2.3
3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
40.5 / 43.3
45.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
67.7 / 65.4
75.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
41.4 / 39.3
37.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.4 / 5.7
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 14.2
10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDST
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDST
Advantage
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: 0.0
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
SDST
ORE
SDST
ML
56%
18-14
75%
24-8
62%
18-11
53%
17-15
ATS
56%
18-14
78%
25-7
62%
18-11
53%
17-15
TTL
59%
19-13
53%
17-15
100%
29-0
100%
32-0
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