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LONG BEACH STATE

BEACHLBSU

0-2  |  Road

66
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 10:00 PM ET
Alex G. Spanos Center
View Odds Details →

PACIFIC

TIGERSPAC

1-1  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
BEACH
0%
📊
TIGERS
100%
BEACH --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
PACIFIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BeachLBSU (-3.5) 0 TigersPAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beach Cover

21.2%

Tigers Cover

78.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PAC +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PAC)

LBSU By 1-7 points

25.3%

LBSU By 8-14 points

26.2%

PAC By 1-7 points

13.7%

PAC By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
76
LONG BEACH STATE
68
PACIFIC
Simulated Score
68
LONG BEACH STATE
72
PACIFIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Beach Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 LBSU @ PAC 66 - 69
Dec 7, 2019 PAC @ LBSU 65 - 46
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +33.2% more
Long Beach State: 16.8 vs Pacific: 11.2
Assists (L5) +44.4% more
Pacific: 14.6 vs Long Beach State: 10.1
Blocks (L5) +42.6% more
Pacific: 3.4 vs Long Beach State: 2.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.3%
Pacific: 36.6% vs Long Beach State: 25.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LBSU Score 76.0 66
PAC Score 68.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 25.3 15.0 / 33.0
Assists 14.6 / 10.1 12.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.4 / 2.4 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 37.9 42.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 72.0 / 70.0 73.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 34.2 / 31.8 42.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.3 / 5.3 7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 16.8 16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
11%MONEY89%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LBSU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
PAC Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LBSU Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +0.4
PAC
16-14-1 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5% Total +/-: +4.7
PAC
10-19-2
O: 34.5% / U: 65.5% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PAC
LBSU
PAC
LBSU
ML
45% 15-18
55% 17-14
80% 24-6
65% 20-11
ATS
55% 18-15
68% 21-10
80% 24-6
65% 20-11
TTL
58% 19-14
61% 19-12
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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