Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Highlanders @ Tar Heels RAD @ UNC

RADFORD

HIGHLANDERSRAD

2-0  |  Road

74
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Dean E. Smith Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

2-0  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
100%
📊
TAR HEELS
0%
HIGHLANDERS --
TAR HEELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (North Carolina)
HighlandersRAD (-3.5) 0 Tar HeelsUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Highlanders Cover

46.0%

Tar Heels Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

RAD By 1-7 points

24.3%

RAD By 8-14 points

13.7%

UNC By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNC By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
66
RADFORD
67
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
60
RADFORD
82
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tar Heels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Tar Heels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u162.5 Loss
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 RAD @ UNC 74 - 89
Nov 6, 2023 RAD @ UNC 70 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +44.3% more
North Carolina: 9.0 vs Radford: 6.2
Assists (L5) +18.1% more
North Carolina: 17.4 vs Radford: 14.7
Turnovers (L5) +8.9% more
Radford: 11.9 vs North Carolina: 10.9
Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Radford: 52.2% vs North Carolina: 48.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RAD Score 66.0 74
UNC Score 67.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 32.7 26.0 / 23.0
Assists 17.4 / 14.7 15.0 / 6.0
Blocks 2.7 / 2.9 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 52.2 38.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 73.2 / 73.2 63.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 39.1 / 36.7 55.0 / 43.0
Steals 9.0 / 6.2 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 11.9 11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RAD
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -2.2
UNC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RAD
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -2.2
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
RAD
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.9
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
RAD
UNC
RAD
ML
76% 25-8
77% 23-7
69% 22-10
76% 22-7
ATS
73% 24-9
63% 19-11
69% 22-10
77% 23-7
TTL
55% 18-15
67% 20-10
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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