Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Notre Dame @ Pitt ND @ PITT

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

7-2  |  Road

37
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 12:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

7-2  |  Home

15
Key Game
Francis Brewu
KEY GAME

Francis Brewu

#7 | Defensive Lineman
@
Tony Kinsler
KEY GAME

Tony Kinsler

#2 | Wide Receiver
Player
Francis Brewu None-None
Tony Kinsler None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NOTRE DAME
100%
📊
PITT
0%
NOTRE DAME --
PITT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Notre DameND (-3.5) 0 PittPITT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Notre Dame Cover

30.9%

Pitt Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PITT -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PITT)

ND By 1-6 points

12.9%

ND By 7-13 points

9.6%

PITT By 1-6 points

16.5%

PITT By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24
NOTRE DAME
31
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
20
NOTRE DAME
31
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pitt Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Pitt Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pitt (+13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Pitt (+13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 ND @ PITT 37 - 15
Oct 28, 2023 PITT @ ND 7 - 58
Oct 24, 2020 ND @ PITT 45 - 3
Oct 13, 2018 PITT @ ND 14 - 19
Nov 7, 2015 ND @ PITT 42 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +158.0% more
Pittsburgh: 2.2 vs Notre Dame: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.5% more
Notre Dame: 215.0 vs Pittsburgh: 134.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Notre Dame: 0.5 vs Pittsburgh: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ND Score 24.0 37
PITT Score 31.0 15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.8 / 23.0 17.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 134.5 / 215.0 70.0 / 175.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 440.6 / 473.5 219.0 / 387.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 0.7 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
PITT
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
PITT Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
PITT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
ND
PITT
ND
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
American Conference Week 6: A 100-Pound Rib Trophy, a Walk-On's …
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Buckeyes' Banged-Up Roster Opens Door for Breakout Stars Against…
si 0 minutes ago
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State: Live Stream, TV Channel, and G…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Red River Rivalry Rebooted: Why Texas-Oklahoma No Longer Decides…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Hurricane Isaias Puts Bengals-Dolphins Clash on Weather Watch
yahoo 0 minutes ago