ARKANSAS
ARKANSASARK
2-7 | Road
22
LSU
LSULSU
5-4 | Home
23
Key Game
KEY GAME
Quincy Rhodes Jr.
#97 | Defensive Lineman@
KEY GAME
Grant Chadwick
#90 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Quincy Rhodes Jr. | None-None |
| Grant Chadwick | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARKANSAS
100%
LSU
0%
ARKANSAS
--
LSU
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LSU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (LSU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LSU)
ARK By 1-6 points
16.1%
ARK By 7-13 points
14.6%
LSU By 1-6 points
16.7%
LSU By 7-13 points
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas
38
ARKANSAS
LSU
39
LSU
Simulated Score
Arkansas
24
ARKANSAS
LSU
31
LSU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
LSU
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
LSU
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
LSU (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Sim
LSU (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o57.5
Loss
Proj Total: 77.0
C
Sim
u57.5
Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 15, 2025
ARK @ LSU
22 - 23
Oct 19, 2024
LSU @ ARK
34 - 10
Sep 23, 2023
ARK @ LSU
31 - 34
Nov 12, 2022
LSU @ ARK
13 - 10
Nov 13, 2021
ARK @ LSU
16 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+57.2% more
Arkansas: 195.2
vs
LSU: 83.6
Total Yards (L5)
+31.3% more
Arkansas: 437.6
vs
LSU: 300.7
Turnovers (L5)
+26.9% more
Arkansas: 1.6
vs
LSU: 1.1
First Downs (L5)
+25.3% more
Arkansas: 22.4
vs
LSU: 16.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARK Score
38.0
22
LSU Score
39.0
23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
16.7 / 22.4
21.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards
83.6 / 195.2
155.0 / 175.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.4
0.47 / 0.18
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards
300.7 / 437.6
390.0 / 340.0
Turnovers
1.1 / 1.6
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARK
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -8.6
ATS +/-: -8.3
LSU
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 28.4
ATS +/-: +6.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARK
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: -8.6
ATS +/-: -8.3
LSU
Advantage
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 28.4
ATS +/-: +6.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ARK
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -6.9
LSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
ARK
LSU
ARK
ML
80%
4-1
100%
5-0
80%
4-1
80%
4-1
ATS
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
80%
4-1
40%
2-3
TTL
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
0%
0-5
20%
1-4
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