Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UTEP @ Missouri St UTEP @ MOST

UTEP

UTEPUTEP

2-7  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 3:00 PM ET
Robert W. Plaster Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

6-3  |  Home

38
Key Game
Carlos Arreola
KEY GAME

Carlos Arreola

#91 | Place kicker
@
Yousef Obeid
KEY GAME

Yousef Obeid

#36 | Place kicker
Player
Carlos Arreola None-None
Yousef Obeid None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTEP
100%
📊
MISSOURI ST
0%
UTEP --
MISSOURI ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
31.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Missouri State)
UTEPUTEP (-3.5) 0 Missouri StMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UTEP Cover

11.2%

Missouri St Cover

88.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MOST -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

UTEP By 1-6 points

5.9%

UTEP By 7-13 points

3.2%

MOST By 1-6 points

10.7%

MOST By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
7
UTEP
24
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
24
UTEP
28
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Missouri St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Missouri St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Missouri St (-6) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Sim Missouri St (-6) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 31.0
C
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 UTEP @ MOST 24 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Missouri State: 0.4 vs UTEP: 0.2
First Downs (L5) +12.8% more
Missouri State: 19.6 vs UTEP: 17.4
Total Yards (L5) +9.1% more
Missouri State: 362.5 vs UTEP: 332.2
Turnovers (L5) +23.1% more
UTEP: 1.6 vs Missouri State: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTEP Score 7.0 24
MOST Score 24.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 17.4 27.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 112.4 / 123.0 106.0 / 115.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.43 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 362.5 / 332.2 436.0 / 240.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.6 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
MOST Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
MOST Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UTEP
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.3
MOST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
UTEP
MOST
UTEP
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-5
50% 2-2
0% 0-5
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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