OKLAHOMA
OKLAHOMAOU
7-2 | Road
23
ALABAMA
ALABAMAALA
8-1 | Home
21
Key Game
KEY GAME
Grayson Miller
#43 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Justin Hill
#8 | Linebacker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Grayson Miller | None-None |
| Justin Hill | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OKLAHOMA
100%
ALABAMA
0%
OKLAHOMA
--
ALABAMA
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Alabama)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ALA -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)
OU By 1-6 points
5.9%
OU By 7-13 points
3.2%
ALA By 1-6 points
10.7%
ALA By 7-13 points
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma
14
OKLAHOMA
Alabama
31
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
Oklahoma
24
OKLAHOMA
Alabama
27
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Alabama
Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Alabama
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Alabama (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Sim
Alabama (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u45.5
Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Sim
o45.5
Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 19, 2025
ALA @ OU
34 - 24
Nov 15, 2025
OU @ ALA
23 - 21
Nov 23, 2024
ALA @ OU
3 - 24
Dec 29, 2018
OU @ ALA
34 - 45
Jan 2, 2014
OU @ ALA
45 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+40.9% more
Oklahoma: 153.3
vs
Alabama: 90.5
Turnovers (L5)
+14.7% more
Oklahoma: 1.4
vs
Alabama: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OU Score
14.0
23
ALA Score
31.0
21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.7 / 18.3
23.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards
90.5 / 153.3
80.0 / 74.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.38 / 0.23
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards
362.0 / 345.1
406.0 / 212.0
Turnovers
1.2 / 1.4
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OU
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -8.0
ALA
Advantage
5-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 28.8
ATS +/-: +14.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OU
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -8.0
ALA
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 28.8
ATS +/-: +14.1
⚖️ Over/Under
OU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -8.3
ALA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0%
Total +/-: +16.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
OU
ALA
OU
ML
100%
5-0
100%
4-0
20%
1-4
100%
4-0
ATS
60%
3-2
50%
2-2
20%
1-4
50%
2-2
TTL
60%
3-2
50%
2-2
80%
4-1
25%
1-3
Contextual Game News
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