Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Carolina @ Wake Forest UNC @ WAKE

NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINAUNC

4-5  |  Road

12
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 4:30 PM ET
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

WAKE FOREST

WAKE FORESTWAKE

6-3  |  Home

28
Key Game
Xavier Lewis
KEY GAME

Xavier Lewis

#90 | Defensive Lineman
@
Connor Calvert
KEY GAME

Connor Calvert

#90 | Place kicker
Player
Xavier Lewis None-None
Connor Calvert None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH CAROLINA
0%
📊
WAKE FOREST
100%
NORTH CAROLINA --
WAKE FOREST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
24.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (North Carolina)
North CarolinaUNC (-3.5) 0 Wake ForestWAKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Carolina Cover

61.2%

Wake Forest Cover

38.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UNC -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

UNC By 1-6 points

17.0%

UNC By 7-13 points

18.0%

WAKE By 1-6 points

14.7%

WAKE By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
14
NORTH CAROLINA
10
WAKE FOREST
Simulated Score
24
NORTH CAROLINA
31
WAKE FOREST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI North Carolina Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Wake Forest Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI North Carolina (-4) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim Wake Forest (+4) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u37.5 Loss
Proj Total: 24.0
C
Sim o37.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 UNC @ WAKE 12 - 28
Nov 16, 2024 WAKE @ UNC 24 - 31
Nov 12, 2022 UNC @ WAKE 36 - 34
Nov 6, 2021 WAKE @ UNC 55 - 58
Nov 14, 2020 WAKE @ UNC 53 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +8.0% more
North Carolina: 313.1 vs Wake Forest: 288.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNC Score 14.0 12
WAKE Score 10.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.1 / 16.7 19.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 124.3 / 116.1 223.0 / 56.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.46 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 288.0 / 313.1 414.0 / 257.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
WAKE Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
WAKE Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: +10.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.5
WAKE
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WAKE
UNC
WAKE
UNC
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
ATS
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
TTL
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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