Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Liberty @ FIU LIB @ FIU

LIBERTY

LIBERTYLIB

4-5  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 5:00 PM ET
Pitbull Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

FIUFIU

4-5  |  Home

34
Key Game
Jon Monteiro
KEY GAME

Jon Monteiro

#10 | Wide Receiver
@
Andre Brown
KEY GAME

Andre Brown

#18 | Wide Receiver
Player
Jon Monteiro None-None
Andre Brown None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIBERTY
0%
📊
FIU
100%
LIBERTY --
FIU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
LIBERTY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Liberty)
LibertyLIB (-3.5) 0 FIUFIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Liberty Cover

84.1%

FIU Cover

15.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LIB -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIB)

LIB By 1-6 points

12.9%

LIB By 7-13 points

19.0%

FIU By 1-6 points

7.9%

FIU By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
35
LIBERTY
21
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Simulated Score
17
LIBERTY
38
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Liberty Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim FIU Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Liberty (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim FIU (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
C
Sim o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 LIB @ FIU 27 - 34
Oct 8, 2024 FIU @ LIB 24 - 31
Sep 23, 2023 LIB @ FIU 38 - 6
Sep 26, 2020 FIU @ LIB 34 - 36
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.8% more
Liberty: 195.5 vs Florida International: 162.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIB Score 35.0 27
FIU Score 21.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.4 / 20.7 22.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 162.7 / 195.5 169.0 / 160.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 402.1 / 399.4 375.0 / 378.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
FIU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
FIU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
FIU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -22.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FIU
LIB
FIU
LIB
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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