Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Commodores @ Knights VAN @ UCF

VANDERBILT

COMMODORESVAN

2-0  |  Road

105
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 4:00 PM ET
Addition Financial Arena
View Odds Details →

UCF

KNIGHTSUCF

1-1  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
COMMODORES
100%
📊
KNIGHTS
0%
COMMODORES --
KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
UCF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (UCF)
CommodoresVAN (-3.5) 0 KnightsUCF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commodores Cover

1.1%

Knights Cover

98.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCF -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)

VAN By 1-7 points

0.8%

VAN By 8-14 points

0.1%

UCF By 1-7 points

4.8%

UCF By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
53
VANDERBILT
76
UCF
Simulated Score
68
VANDERBILT
72
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Knights Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Knights Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Knights (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Knights (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 VAN @ UCF 105 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +52.2% more
UCF: 12.2 vs Vanderbilt: 8.0
Rebounding (L5) +15.8% more
UCF: 39.1 vs Vanderbilt: 33.8
Free Throw % (L5) +2.9%
UCF: 72.4% vs Vanderbilt: 69.6%
Steals (L5) +46.1% more
Vanderbilt: 9.0 vs UCF: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAN Score 53.0 105
UCF Score 76.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.7 / 37.6 56.0 / 39.0
Assists 13.4 / 15.9 16.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.7 / 4.2 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 45.9 53.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 72.4 / 69.6 79.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 39.1 / 33.8 29.0 / 29.0
Steals 4.8 / 9.0 0.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 8.0 12.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN Advantage
27-9-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
UCF
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN Advantage
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
UCF
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +1.3
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
VAN
UCF
VAN
ML
55% 18-15
69% 25-11
65% 20-11
56% 18-14
ATS
55% 18-15
78% 28-8
65% 20-11
56% 18-14
TTL
61% 20-13
58% 21-15
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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