Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Bruins TNST @ BEL

TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

1-0  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 8:00 PM ET
Curb Event Center Arena
View Odds Details →

BELMONT

BRUINSBEL

1-0  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
BRUINS
100%
TIGERS --
BRUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Tennessee State)
TigersTNST (-3.5) 0 BruinsBEL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

97.1%

Bruins Cover

2.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TNST -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TNST)

TNST By 1-7 points

9.3%

TNST By 8-14 points

20.1%

BEL By 1-7 points

2.2%

BEL By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
79
TENNESSEE STATE
60
BELMONT
Simulated Score
67
TENNESSEE STATE
78
BELMONT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bruins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Bruins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 TNST @ BEL 79 - 87
Feb 26, 2022 TNST @ BEL 67 - 87
Feb 3, 2022 BEL @ TNST 88 - 61
Dec 18, 2020 BEL @ TNST 88 - 63
Dec 8, 2020 TNST @ BEL 64 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +32.8% more
Tennessee State: 3.9 vs Belmont: 2.6
Rebounding (L5) +29.1% more
Tennessee State: 44.7 vs Belmont: 31.7
Turnovers (L5) +26.3% more
Tennessee State: 15.3 vs Belmont: 11.3
Steals (L5) +16.2% more
Tennessee State: 8.9 vs Belmont: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TNST Score 79.0 79
BEL Score 60.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.4 / 32.8 25.0 / 30.0
Assists 16.2 / 14.8 18.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.9 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 48.1 53.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 71.8 / 71.1 67.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 44.7 42.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.5 / 8.9 6.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 15.3 17.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNST
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
BEL Advantage
26-6-0 (81.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
BEL
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
BEL
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BEL
TNST
BEL
TNST
ML
47% 15-17
52% 16-15
62% 20-12
63% 17-10
ATS
56% 18-14
68% 21-10
62% 20-12
64% 18-10
TTL
44% 14-18
52% 16-15
100% 32-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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