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GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

5-3  |  Road

116
FINAL
Wed, Nov 5 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

2-5  |  Home

121
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
WARRIORS --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Sacramento)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

42.1%

Kings Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

GS By 1-7 points

23.0%

GS By 8-14 points

12.2%

SAC By 1-7 points

26.8%

SAC By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
114
GOLDEN STATE
116
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
112
GOLDEN STATE
115
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kings Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Kings (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o224.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim u224.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 GS @ SAC 118 - 124
Apr 7, 2026 SAC @ GS 105 - 110
Jan 9, 2026 SAC @ GS 103 - 137
Nov 5, 2025 GS @ SAC 116 - 121
Mar 13, 2025 SAC @ GS 104 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
Sacramento: 50.8% vs Golden State: 47.6%
Blocks (L5) +53.4% more
Golden State: 2.7 vs Sacramento: 1.2
Turnovers (L5) +20.6% more
Golden State: 11.5 vs Sacramento: 9.1
Steals (L5) +16.2% more
Golden State: 5.5 vs Sacramento: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 114.0 116
SAC Score 116.0 121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 38.8 48.0 / 40.0
Assists 18.7 / 20.2 27.0 / 28.0
Blocks 1.2 / 2.7 5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 50.8 / 47.6 49.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 57.0 / 58.1 85.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 29.2 / 28.3 47.0 / 44.0
Steals 4.6 / 5.5 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 11.5 16.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
SAC Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
GS
SAC
GS
ML
55% 55-45
55% 95-79
61% 50-32
58% 49-35
ATS
54% 52-45-3
58% 101-73
61% 50-32
58% 49-35
TTL
58% 57-42-1
77% 134-40
100% 82-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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