Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Georgia @ Mississippi St UGA @ MSST

GEORGIA

GEORGIAUGA

7-1  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 12:00 PM ET
Davis Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

5-4  |  Home

21
Key Game
Darren Ikinnagbon
KEY GAME

Darren Ikinnagbon

#11 | Linebacker
@
Ethan Pulliam
KEY GAME

Ethan Pulliam

#8 | Punter
Player
Darren Ikinnagbon None-None
Ethan Pulliam None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA
0%
📊
MISSISSIPPI ST
100%
GEORGIA --
MISSISSIPPI ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
GeorgiaUGA (-3.5) 0 Mississippi StMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Georgia Cover

41.5%

Mississippi St Cover

58.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MSST +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

UGA By 1-6 points

17.0%

UGA By 7-13 points

17.5%

MSST By 1-6 points

15.3%

MSST By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
34
GEORGIA
31
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
38
GEORGIA
17
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Georgia Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Georgia Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mississippi St (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
C
Sim Georgia (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Sim u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 UGA @ MSST 41 - 21
Oct 12, 2024 MSST @ UGA 31 - 41
Nov 12, 2022 UGA @ MSST 45 - 19
Nov 21, 2020 MSST @ UGA 24 - 31
Sep 23, 2017 MSST @ UGA 3 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +26.5% more
Georgia: 162.8 vs Mississippi State: 119.6
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Georgia: 0.6 vs Mississippi State: 0.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Georgia: 0.5 vs Mississippi State: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +46.0% more
Mississippi State: 1.3 vs Georgia: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UGA Score 34.0 41
MSST Score 31.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.8 / 24.4 18.0 / 30.0
Rushing Yards 119.6 / 162.8 149.0 / 303.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 400.9 / 400.7 322.0 / 567.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UGA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 38.0 ATS +/-: +7.7
MSST
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UGA
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 38.0 ATS +/-: +7.7
MSST
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UGA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +12.9
MSST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
UGA
MSST
UGA
ML
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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