Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Missouri St @ Liberty MOST @ LIB

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

5-3  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 1:00 PM ET
Williams Stadium (VA)
View Odds Details →

LIBERTY

LIBERTYLIB

4-4  |  Home

17
Key Game
Stewart McDonald
KEY GAME

Stewart McDonald

#25 | Punter
@
Ethan Crisp
KEY GAME

Ethan Crisp

#30 | Defensive Back
Player
Stewart McDonald None-None
Ethan Crisp None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI ST
0%
📊
LIBERTY
100%
MISSOURI ST --
LIBERTY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Missouri State)
Missouri StMOST (-3.5) 0 LibertyLIB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri St Cover

76.2%

Liberty Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MOST -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

MOST By 1-6 points

15.3%

MOST By 7-13 points

19.7%

LIB By 1-6 points

10.7%

LIB By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24
MISSOURI STATE
14
LIBERTY
Simulated Score
10
MISSOURI STATE
48
LIBERTY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Missouri St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Liberty Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Missouri St (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Liberty (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 MOST @ LIB 21 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.1% more
Liberty: 192.2 vs Missouri State: 145.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 24.0 21
LIB Score 14.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.5 / 19.4 21.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 192.2 / 145.6 202.0 / 46.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 400.0 / 377.8 398.0 / 332.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.4 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
LIB Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
LIB Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
LIB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIB
MOST
LIB
MOST
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
TTL
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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