Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kansas @ Arizona KU @ ARIZ

KANSAS

KANSASKU

5-4  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 3:30 PM ET
Arizona Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

5-3  |  Home

24
Key Game
Tate Nagy
KEY GAME

Tate Nagy

#11 | Wide Receiver
@
Michael Salgado-Medina
KEY GAME

Michael Salgado-Medina

#19 | Place kicker
Player
Tate Nagy None-None
Michael Salgado-Medina None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KANSAS
100%
📊
ARIZONA
0%
KANSAS --
ARIZONA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Arizona)
KansasKU (-3.5) 0 ArizonaARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kansas Cover

41.5%

Arizona Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARIZ -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

KU By 1-6 points

15.3%

KU By 7-13 points

12.9%

ARIZ By 1-6 points

17.0%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
31
KANSAS
34
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
24
KANSAS
31
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arizona Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arizona Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arizona (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Arizona (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 KU @ ARIZ 20 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +17.3% more
Arizona: 403.7 vs Kansas: 344.1
Turnovers (L5) +14.0% more
Arizona: 1.4 vs Kansas: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KU Score 31.0 20
ARIZ Score 34.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.3 / 19.3 18.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 149.8 / 156.1 165.0 / 170.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 403.7 / 344.1 323.0 / 369.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
ARIZ Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
ARIZ
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
KU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
ARIZ
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
KU
ARIZ
KU
ML
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
ATS
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
0% 0-4
TTL
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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