Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Stanford @ North Carolina STAN @ UNC

STANFORD

STANFORDSTAN

3-6  |  Road

15
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 4:30 PM ET
Kenan Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINAUNC

3-5  |  Home

20
Key Game
Aidan Flintoft
KEY GAME

Aidan Flintoft

#37 | Punter
@
Greg Smith III
KEY GAME

Greg Smith III

#1 | Defensive Back
Player
Aidan Flintoft None-None
Greg Smith III None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STANFORD
100%
📊
NORTH CAROLINA
0%
STANFORD --
NORTH CAROLINA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
28.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (North Carolina)
StanfordSTAN (-3.5) 0 North CarolinaUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stanford Cover

15.9%

North Carolina Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNC -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

STAN By 1-6 points

7.9%

STAN By 7-13 points

4.7%

UNC By 1-6 points

12.9%

UNC By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
7
STANFORD
21
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
27
STANFORD
34
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI North Carolina Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim North Carolina Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI North Carolina (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim North Carolina (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u41.5 Win
Proj Total: 28.0
C
Sim o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 STAN @ UNC 15 - 20
Dec 30, 2016 STAN @ UNC 25 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +187.1% more
North Carolina: 149.2 vs Stanford: 52.0
Total Yards (L5) +17.5% more
North Carolina: 343.2 vs Stanford: 292.1
First Downs (L5) +12.4% more
North Carolina: 18.5 vs Stanford: 16.5
Turnovers (L5) +13.9% more
Stanford: 2.0 vs North Carolina: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STAN Score 7.0 15
UNC Score 21.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.5 / 16.5 13.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 149.2 / 52.0 50.0 / 36.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.56
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 343.2 / 292.1 253.0 / 320.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 2.0 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
UNC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
UNC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
STAN
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.7
UNC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
STAN
UNC
STAN
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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