Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / California @ Louisville CAL @ LOU

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

5-4  |  Road

29
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 7:00 PM ET
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISVILLE

LOUISVILLELOU

7-1  |  Home

26
Key Game
Chase Meyer
KEY GAME

Chase Meyer

#91 | Place kicker
@
AJ Green
KEY GAME

AJ Green

#17 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Chase Meyer None-None
AJ Green None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CALIFORNIA
100%
📊
LOUISVILLE
0%
CALIFORNIA --
LOUISVILLE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Louisville)
CaliforniaCAL (-3.5) 0 LouisvilleLOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

California Cover

17.7%

Louisville Cover

82.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LOU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

CAL By 1-6 points

8.6%

CAL By 7-13 points

5.3%

LOU By 1-6 points

13.5%

LOU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
14
CALIFORNIA
27
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
20
CALIFORNIA
31
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Louisville Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Louisville Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Louisville (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim Louisville (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 CAL @ LOU 29 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +311.2% more
Louisville: 197.4 vs California: 48.0
Total Yards (L5) +35.2% more
Louisville: 408.1 vs California: 301.8
Turnovers (L5) +17.3% more
Louisville: 1.6 vs California: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAL Score 14.0 29
LOU Score 27.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.8 / 17.7 16.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 197.4 / 48.0 148.0 / 77.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.35 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 408.1 / 301.8 351.0 / 427.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
LOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
LOU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.3
LOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +11.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
CAL
LOU
CAL
ML
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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