LSU
LSULSU
5-3 | Road
9
ALABAMA
ALABAMAALA
7-1 | Home
20
Key Game
KEY GAME
Grant Chadwick
#90 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Isaia Faga
#88 | Defensive Lineman| Player | |
|---|---|
| Grant Chadwick | None-None |
| Isaia Faga | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LSU
100%
ALABAMA
0%
LSU
--
ALABAMA
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Alabama)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ALA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)
LSU By 1-6 points
12.9%
LSU By 7-13 points
9.6%
ALA By 1-6 points
16.5%
ALA By 7-13 points
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
LSU
24
LSU
Alabama
31
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
LSU
24
LSU
Alabama
31
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Alabama
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Alabama
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Alabama (+10)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim
Alabama (+10)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o49.5
Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim
o49.5
Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 8, 2025
LSU @ ALA
9 - 20
Nov 9, 2024
ALA @ LSU
42 - 13
Nov 4, 2023
LSU @ ALA
28 - 42
Nov 5, 2022
ALA @ LSU
31 - 32
Nov 6, 2021
LSU @ ALA
14 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+52.0% more
Alabama: 1.2
vs
LSU: 0.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+16.0% more
Alabama: 0.5
vs
LSU: 0.3
First Downs (L5)
+13.6% more
Alabama: 21.1
vs
LSU: 18.6
Rushing Yards (L5)
+12.4% more
Alabama: 107.8
vs
LSU: 95.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LSU Score
24.0
9
ALA Score
31.0
20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
21.1 / 18.6
17.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards
107.8 / 95.9
56.0 / 59.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.3
0.31 / 0.36
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards
371.0 / 335.0
344.0 / 232.0
Turnovers
1.2 / 0.7
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LSU
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 28.4
ATS +/-: +6.3
ALA
Advantage
5-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 28.8
ATS +/-: +14.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LSU
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 28.4
ATS +/-: +6.3
ALA
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 28.8
ATS +/-: +14.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: +3.5
ALA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0%
Total +/-: +16.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
LSU
ALA
LSU
ML
100%
5-0
80%
4-1
20%
1-4
80%
4-1
ATS
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
20%
1-4
80%
4-1
TTL
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
0%
0-5
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