Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Navy @ Notre Dame NAVY @ ND

NAVY

NAVYNAVY

7-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Nov 8 • 7:30 PM ET
Notre Dame Stadium
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

6-2  |  Home

49
Key Game
Jacob Carlson
KEY GAME

Jacob Carlson

#11 | Punter
@
Erik Schmidt
KEY GAME

Erik Schmidt

#18 | Punter
Player
Jacob Carlson None-None
Erik Schmidt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NAVY
100%
📊
NOTRE DAME
0%
NAVY --
NOTRE DAME --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Notre Dame)
NavyNAVY (-3.5) 0 Notre DameND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Navy Cover

6.7%

Notre Dame Cover

93.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ND -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

NAVY By 1-6 points

3.8%

NAVY By 7-13 points

1.8%

ND By 1-6 points

7.9%

ND By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
17
NAVY
38
NOTRE DAME
Simulated Score
10
NAVY
27
NOTRE DAME
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Notre Dame Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Notre Dame Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Notre Dame (+29.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Sim Notre Dame (+29.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 37.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 8, 2025 NAVY @ ND 10 - 49
Oct 26, 2024 ND @ NAVY 51 - 14
Aug 26, 2023 NAVY @ ND 3 - 42
Nov 12, 2022 ND @ NAVY 35 - 32
Nov 6, 2021 NAVY @ ND 6 - 34
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +8.6% more
Notre Dame: 22.9 vs Navy: 21.1
Turnovers (L5) +36.1% more
Navy: 1.6 vs Notre Dame: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.6% more
Navy: 307.2 vs Notre Dame: 197.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Navy: 0.5 vs Notre Dame: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAVY Score 17.0 10
ND Score 38.0 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.9 / 21.1 23.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 197.9 / 307.2 249.0 / 206.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.7 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 459.2 / 437.9 502.0 / 228.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.6 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAVY
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
ND Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAVY
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
ND Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NAVY
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
ND
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
NAVY
ND
NAVY
ML
100% 5-0
25% 1-3
100% 5-0
100% 4-0
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
TTL
40% 2-3
0% 0-4
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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