Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisiana @ South Alabama UL @ USA

LOUISIANA

LOUISIANAUL

2-6  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 3:30 PM ET
Hancock Whitney Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

2-6  |  Home

22
Key Game
Tony Sterner
KEY GAME

Tony Sterner

#95 | Place kicker
@
Aleksi Pulkkinen
KEY GAME

Aleksi Pulkkinen

#40 | Punter
Player
Tony Sterner None-None
Aleksi Pulkkinen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISIANA
100%
📊
SOUTH ALABAMA
0%
LOUISIANA --
SOUTH ALABAMA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (South Alabama)
LouisianaUL (-3.5) 0 South AlabamaUSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisiana Cover

8.7%

South Alabama Cover

91.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USA -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)

UL By 1-6 points

4.8%

UL By 7-13 points

2.4%

USA By 1-6 points

9.3%

USA By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
23
LOUISIANA
42
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
24
LOUISIANA
28
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI South Alabama Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim South Alabama Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI South Alabama (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
C
Sim South Alabama (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Sim u52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 UL @ USA 31 - 22
Nov 16, 2024 USA @ UL 24 - 22
Oct 28, 2023 UL @ USA 33 - 20
Oct 1, 2022 USA @ UL 20 - 17
Oct 2, 2021 UL @ USA 20 - 18
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +9.8% more
South Alabama: 389.6 vs Louisiana: 354.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.9% more
South Alabama: 195.6 vs Louisiana: 179.6
Turnovers (L5) +76.8% more
Louisiana: 2.2 vs South Alabama: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 23.0 31
USA Score 42.0 22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.9 / 18.0 20.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 195.6 / 179.6 165.0 / 161.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 389.6 / 354.8 368.0 / 393.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 2.2 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
USA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
USA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.7
USA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
UL
USA
UL
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
75% 3-1-1
80% 4-1
50% 2-2-1
TTL
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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