Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami @ SMU MIA @ SMU

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

6-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 12:00 PM ET
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
View Odds Details →

SMU

SMUSMU

5-3  |  Home

26
Key Game
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
@
Wade McSparron
KEY GAME

Wade McSparron

#43 | Punter
Player
Dylan Joyce None-None
Wade McSparron None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI
0%
📊
SMU
100%
MIAMI --
SMU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MiamiMIA (-3.5) 0 SMUSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami Cover

30.9%

SMU Cover

69.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SMU +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

MIA By 1-6 points

16.5%

MIA By 7-13 points

19.3%

SMU By 1-6 points

12.9%

SMU By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
31
MIAMI
24
SMU
Simulated Score
24
MIAMI
31
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Miami Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim SMU Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI SMU (+10) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
C
Sim SMU (+10) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 MIA @ SMU 20 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +29.4% more
Miami: 151.6 vs SMU: 107.0
First Downs (L5) +22.5% more
Miami: 21.0 vs SMU: 16.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Miami: 0.5 vs SMU: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +11.4% more
Miami: 394.3 vs SMU: 349.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 31.0 20
SMU Score 24.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.3 / 21.0 20.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 107.0 / 151.6 23.0 / 159.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.23 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 349.5 / 394.3 388.0 / 433.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
SMU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
SMU
1-3-1 (25.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.5
SMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
MIA
SMU
MIA
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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