Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Rutgers @ Illinois RUTG @ ILL

RUTGERS

RUTGERSRUTG

4-4  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS

ILLINOISILL

5-3  |  Home

35
Key Game
Jakob Anderson
KEY GAME

Jakob Anderson

#94 | Punter
@
Pat Farrell
KEY GAME

Pat Farrell

#52 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Jakob Anderson None-None
Pat Farrell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RUTGERS
0%
📊
ILLINOIS
100%
RUTGERS --
ILLINOIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RutgersRUTG (-3.5) 0 IllinoisILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rutgers Cover

41.5%

Illinois Cover

58.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ILL +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

RUTG By 1-6 points

17.0%

RUTG By 7-13 points

17.5%

ILL By 1-6 points

15.3%

ILL By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
34
RUTGERS
31
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
20
RUTGERS
24
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rutgers Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Illinois Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Illinois (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
C
Sim Illinois (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o62.5 Loss
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Sim u62.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 RUTG @ ILL 13 - 35
Nov 23, 2024 ILL @ RUTG 38 - 31
Oct 30, 2021 RUTG @ ILL 20 - 14
Nov 14, 2020 ILL @ RUTG 23 - 20
Nov 2, 2019 RUTG @ ILL 10 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.5% more
Rutgers: 145.2 vs Illinois: 112.5
Total Yards (L5) +13.9% more
Rutgers: 423.2 vs Illinois: 364.2
Turnovers (L5) +23.1% more
Illinois: 1.7 vs Rutgers: 1.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Illinois: 0.5 vs Rutgers: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RUTG Score 34.0 13
ILL Score 31.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 21.6 26.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 112.5 / 145.2 210.0 / 59.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.58 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 364.2 / 423.2 445.0 / 312.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RUTG
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: -7.0
ILL Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RUTG
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: -7.0
ILL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
RUTG
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
ILL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
RUTG
ILL
RUTG
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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