Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisville @ Virginia Tech LOU @ VT

LOUISVILLE

LOUISVILLELOU

6-1  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 3:00 PM ET
Lane Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA TECH

VIRGINIA TECHVT

3-5  |  Home

16
Key Game
Clev Lubin
KEY GAME

Clev Lubin

#50 | Defensive Lineman
@
John Love
KEY GAME

John Love

#17 | Place kicker
Player
Clev Lubin None-None
John Love None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISVILLE
0%
📊
VIRGINIA TECH
100%
LOUISVILLE --
VIRGINIA TECH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
34.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
VIRGINIA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LouisvilleLOU (-3.5) 0 Virginia TechVT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisville Cover

33.4%

Virginia Tech Cover

66.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around VT +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VT)

LOU By 1-6 points

16.7%

LOU By 7-13 points

19.0%

VT By 1-6 points

13.5%

VT By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
20
LOUISVILLE
14
VIRGINIA TECH
Simulated Score
24
LOUISVILLE
27
VIRGINIA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Louisville Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Virginia Tech Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Virginia Tech (+10) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
C
Sim Virginia Tech (+10) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 34.0
C
Sim u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 LOU @ VT 28 - 16
Nov 4, 2023 VT @ LOU 3 - 34
Oct 31, 2020 VT @ LOU 42 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +47.6% more
Louisville: 1.9 vs Virginia Tech: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.1% more
Virginia Tech: 234.1 vs Louisville: 178.7
First Downs (L5) +9.3% more
Virginia Tech: 21.0 vs Louisville: 19.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LOU Score 20.0 28
VT Score 14.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 19.2 16.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 234.1 / 178.7 164.0 / 235.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 395.5 / 426.6 240.0 / 371.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.9 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
VT Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.4 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
VT
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.4 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +11.1
VT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VT
LOU
VT
LOU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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