Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Delaware @ Liberty DEL @ LIB

DELAWARE

DELAWAREDEL

4-3  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 3:30 PM ET
Williams Stadium (VA)
View Odds Details →

LIBERTY

LIBERTYLIB

3-4  |  Home

59
Key Game
Kaeden Singleton
KEY GAME

Kaeden Singleton

#44 | Defensive End
@
Caleb Ryan
KEY GAME

Caleb Ryan

#48 | Tight End
Player
Kaeden Singleton None-None
Caleb Ryan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DELAWARE
0%
📊
LIBERTY
100%
DELAWARE --
LIBERTY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
DELAWARE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Delaware)
DelawareDEL (-3.5) 0 LibertyLIB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Delaware Cover

93.3%

Liberty Cover

6.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DEL -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEL)

DEL By 1-6 points

7.9%

DEL By 7-13 points

14.6%

LIB By 1-6 points

3.8%

LIB By 7-13 points

1.8%

AI Model Projected Score
31
DELAWARE
10
LIBERTY
Simulated Score
17
DELAWARE
38
LIBERTY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Delaware Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Liberty Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Delaware (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Sim Liberty (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 2, 2026 LIB @ DEL 30 - 14
Nov 1, 2025 DEL @ LIB 30 - 59
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +25.2% more
Delaware: 24.4 vs Liberty: 18.2
Total Yards (L5) +19.3% more
Delaware: 395.8 vs Liberty: 319.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Delaware: 0.5 vs Liberty: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +56.0% more
Liberty: 147.3 vs Delaware: 94.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEL Score 31.0 30
LIB Score 10.0 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.2 / 24.4 25.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 147.3 / 94.4 282.0 / 76.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 319.6 / 395.8 561.0 / 420.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.7 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
LIB Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEL
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
LIB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DEL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
LIB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIB
DEL
LIB
DEL
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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