Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Pitt @ Stanford PITT @ STAN

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

6-2  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 3:30 PM ET
Stanford Stadium
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

STANFORDSTAN

3-5  |  Home

20
Key Game
Nick James
KEY GAME

Nick James

#11 | Defensive Lineman
@
Aidan Flintoft
KEY GAME

Aidan Flintoft

#37 | Punter
Player
Nick James None-None
Aidan Flintoft None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PITT
0%
📊
STANFORD
100%
PITT --
STANFORD --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
27.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Pittsburgh)
PittPITT (-3.5) 0 StanfordSTAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pitt Cover

97.3%

Stanford Cover

2.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PITT -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PITT)

PITT By 1-6 points

4.2%

PITT By 7-13 points

9.6%

STAN By 1-6 points

1.6%

STAN By 7-13 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
27
PITTSBURGH
0
STANFORD
Simulated Score
20
PITTSBURGH
24
STANFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pitt Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Stanford Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pitt (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
C
Sim Stanford (-13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 27.0
C
Sim u51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 PITT @ STAN 35 - 20
Dec 31, 2018 STAN @ PITT 14 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +35.7% more
Pittsburgh: 427.9 vs Stanford: 275.1
First Downs (L5) +32.5% more
Pittsburgh: 23.3 vs Stanford: 15.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.3% more
Pittsburgh: 120.7 vs Stanford: 82.9
Turnovers (L5) +11.7% more
Stanford: 1.5 vs Pittsburgh: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PITT Score 27.0 35
STAN Score 0.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.7 / 23.3 18.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 82.9 / 120.7 -10.0 / 162.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 275.1 / 427.9 326.0 / 466.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.4 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PITT Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PITT Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PITT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.5
STAN
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
PITT
STAN
PITT
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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