Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Virginia @ California UVA @ CAL

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

7-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Nov 1 • 3:45 PM ET
California Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

5-3  |  Home

21
Key Game
Will Bettridge
KEY GAME

Will Bettridge

#41 | Place kicker
@
Chase Meyer
KEY GAME

Chase Meyer

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Will Bettridge None-None
Chase Meyer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIRGINIA
0%
📊
CALIFORNIA
100%
VIRGINIA --
CALIFORNIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Virginia)
VirginiaUVA (-3.5) 0 CaliforniaCAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Virginia Cover

95.7%

California Cover

4.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UVA -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

UVA By 1-6 points

5.9%

UVA By 7-13 points

12.1%

CAL By 1-6 points

2.5%

CAL By 7-13 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
31
VIRGINIA
7
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
24
VIRGINIA
27
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Virginia Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim California Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Virginia (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
C
Sim California (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
C
Sim u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2025 UVA @ CAL 31 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.8% more
Virginia: 125.5 vs California: 68.0
Turnovers (L5) +22.0% more
California: 1.0 vs Virginia: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +8.1% more
California: 19.5 vs Virginia: 18.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UVA Score 31.0 31
CAL Score 7.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 18.0 14.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 68.0 / 125.5 8.0 / 194.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 321.1 / 336.2 263.0 / 456.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
CAL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
CAL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.7
CAL
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
UVA
CAL
UVA
ML
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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