Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Virginia @ North Carolina UVA @ UNC

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

6-1  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 12:00 PM ET
Kenan Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINAUNC

2-4  |  Home

16
Key Game
Will Bettridge
KEY GAME

Will Bettridge

#41 | Place kicker
@
Jalon Thompson
KEY GAME

Jalon Thompson

#4 | Defensive Back
Player
Will Bettridge None-None
Jalon Thompson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIRGINIA
100%
📊
NORTH CAROLINA
0%
VIRGINIA --
NORTH CAROLINA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (North Carolina)
VirginiaUVA (-3.5) 0 North CarolinaUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Virginia Cover

23.8%

North Carolina Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNC -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

UVA By 1-6 points

10.7%

UVA By 7-13 points

7.3%

UNC By 1-6 points

15.3%

UNC By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
24
VIRGINIA
34
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
31
VIRGINIA
27
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI North Carolina Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Virginia Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI North Carolina (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Virginia (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 UVA @ UNC 17 - 16
Oct 26, 2024 UNC @ UVA 41 - 14
Oct 21, 2023 UVA @ UNC 31 - 27
Nov 5, 2022 UNC @ UVA 31 - 28
Sep 18, 2021 UVA @ UNC 39 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +99.0% more
North Carolina: 1.7 vs Virginia: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +33.4% more
Virginia: 158.7 vs North Carolina: 105.7
Total Yards (L5) +26.3% more
Virginia: 374.7 vs North Carolina: 276.2
First Downs (L5) +12.3% more
Virginia: 19.0 vs North Carolina: 16.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UVA Score 24.0 17
UNC Score 34.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.7 / 19.0 20.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 105.7 / 158.7 145.0 / 59.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.39
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 276.2 / 374.7 353.0 / 259.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.7 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
UNC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
UNC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.7
UNC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
UVA
UNC
UVA
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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