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KANSAS STATE

KANSAS STKSU

3-4  |  Road

42
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 12:00 PM ET
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS

KANSASKU

4-3  |  Home

17
Key Game
Simon McClannan
KEY GAME

Simon McClannan

#8 | Punter
@
Tate Nagy
KEY GAME

Tate Nagy

#11 | Wide Receiver
Player
Simon McClannan None-None
Tate Nagy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KANSAS ST
0%
📊
KANSAS
100%
KANSAS ST --
KANSAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Kansas State)
Kansas StKSU (-3.5) 0 KansasKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kansas St Cover

69.1%

Kansas Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

KSU By 1-6 points

16.5%

KSU By 7-13 points

19.3%

KU By 1-6 points

12.9%

KU By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
27
KANSAS STATE
20
KANSAS
Simulated Score
24
KANSAS STATE
28
KANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kansas St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Kansas Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kansas St (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Kansas (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 KSU @ KU 42 - 17
Oct 26, 2024 KU @ KSU 27 - 29
Nov 18, 2023 KSU @ KU 31 - 27
Nov 26, 2022 KU @ KSU 27 - 47
Nov 6, 2021 KSU @ KU 35 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.7% more
Kansas State: 162.4 vs Kansas: 122.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KSU Score 27.0 42
KU Score 20.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 20.8 18.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 122.3 / 162.4 110.0 / 140.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 394.2 / 383.9 247.0 / 371.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 0.7 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KSU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
KU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KSU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
KU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
KSU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.5
KU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KU
KSU
KU
KSU
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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