Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Auburn @ Arkansas AUB @ ARK

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

3-4  |  Road

33
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 12:45 PM ET
Razorback Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS

ARKANSASARK

2-5  |  Home

24
Key Game
Hudson Kaak
KEY GAME

Hudson Kaak

#14 | Punter
@
Miguel Mitchell
KEY GAME

Miguel Mitchell

#24 | Defensive Back
Player
Hudson Kaak None-None
Miguel Mitchell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AUBURN
0%
📊
ARKANSAS
100%
AUBURN --
ARKANSAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
69.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Auburn)
AuburnAUB (-3.5) 0 ArkansasARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Auburn Cover

69.1%

Arkansas Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around AUB -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

AUB By 1-6 points

16.5%

AUB By 7-13 points

19.3%

ARK By 1-6 points

12.9%

ARK By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
38
AUBURN
31
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
20
AUBURN
27
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Auburn Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arkansas Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Auburn (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Arkansas (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o55.5 Win
Proj Total: 69.0
C
Sim u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 AUB @ ARK 33 - 24
Sep 21, 2024 ARK @ AUB 24 - 14
Nov 11, 2023 AUB @ ARK 48 - 10
Oct 29, 2022 ARK @ AUB 41 - 27
Oct 16, 2021 AUB @ ARK 38 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +84.0% more
Arkansas: 1.5 vs Auburn: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +68.2% more
Arkansas: 228.4 vs Auburn: 135.8
Total Yards (L5) +56.4% more
Arkansas: 494.4 vs Auburn: 316.1
First Downs (L5) +37.1% more
Arkansas: 24.6 vs Auburn: 17.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AUB Score 38.0 33
ARK Score 31.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.6 / 17.9 14.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 228.4 / 135.8 63.0 / 230.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 494.4 / 316.1 331.0 / 380.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.7 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AUB Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
ARK
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AUB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
ARK
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
AUB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
ARK
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
AUB
ARK
AUB
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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