Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Illinois @ Washington ILL @ WASH

ILLINOIS

ILLINOISILL

5-2  |  Road

25
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 3:30 PM ET
Husky Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WASHINGTONWASH

5-2  |  Home

42
Key Game
Pat Farrell
KEY GAME

Pat Farrell

#52 | Defensive Lineman
@
Luke Dunne
KEY GAME

Luke Dunne

#45 | Punter
Player
Pat Farrell None-None
Luke Dunne None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ILLINOIS
100%
📊
WASHINGTON
0%
ILLINOIS --
WASHINGTON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Washington)
IllinoisILL (-3.5) 0 WashingtonWASH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Illinois Cover

23.8%

Washington Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WASH -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WASH)

ILL By 1-6 points

10.7%

ILL By 7-13 points

7.3%

WASH By 1-6 points

15.3%

WASH By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
24
ILLINOIS
34
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
17
ILLINOIS
31
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Washington Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Washington Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Washington (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Washington (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 ILL @ WASH 25 - 42
Sep 13, 2014 ILL @ WASH 19 - 44
Sep 14, 2013 WASH @ ILL 34 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.4% more
Washington: 115.1 vs Illinois: 99.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Washington: 0.4 vs Illinois: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILL Score 24.0 25
WASH Score 34.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 21.0 27.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 115.1 / 99.7 157.0 / 138.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.75 / 0.75
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 386.7 / 377.9 449.0 / 337.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
WASH Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
WASH
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +1.3
WASH
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WASH
ILL
WASH
ILL
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
TTL
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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