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NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

4-3  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 3:30 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

5-2  |  Home

53
Key Game
Adrian Farrow
KEY GAME

Adrian Farrow

#47 | Defensive Lineman
@
Justin Thompson
KEY GAME

Justin Thompson

#54 | Linebacker
Player
Adrian Farrow None-None
Justin Thompson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NC STATE
100%
📊
PITT
0%
NC STATE --
PITT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
NC StateNCSU (-3.5) 0 PittPITT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

NC State Cover

47.2%

Pitt Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PITT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PITT)

NCSU By 1-6 points

16.1%

NCSU By 7-13 points

14.6%

PITT By 1-6 points

16.7%

PITT By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
27
NC STATE
28
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
23
NC STATE
27
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pitt Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Pitt Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pitt (+6) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Sim Pitt (+6) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o53.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2025 NCSU @ PITT 34 - 53
Oct 3, 2020 NCSU @ PITT 30 - 29
Oct 14, 2017 NCSU @ PITT 35 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +20.9% more
NC State: 2.0 vs Pittsburgh: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score 27.0 34
PITT Score 28.0 53
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 19.9 29.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 128.0 / 132.2 106.0 / 161.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 377.3 / 391.3 529.0 / 445.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 2.0 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
PITT Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
PITT Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
PITT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
NCSU
PITT
NCSU
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
TTL
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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