Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / California @ Virginia Tech CAL @ VT

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

5-2  |  Road

34
FINAL
Fri, Oct 24 • 7:30 PM ET
Lane Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA TECH

VIRGINIA TECHVT

2-5  |  Home

42
Key Game
Chase Meyer
KEY GAME

Chase Meyer

#91 | Place kicker
@
John Love
KEY GAME

John Love

#17 | Place kicker
Player
Chase Meyer None-None
John Love None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CALIFORNIA
100%
📊
VIRGINIA TECH
0%
CALIFORNIA --
VIRGINIA TECH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
VIRGINIA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Virginia Tech)
CaliforniaCAL (-3.5) 0 Virginia TechVT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

California Cover

26.0%

Virginia Tech Cover

74.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around VT -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VT)

CAL By 1-6 points

11.5%

CAL By 7-13 points

8.0%

VT By 1-6 points

15.7%

VT By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
16
CALIFORNIA
25
VIRGINIA TECH
Simulated Score
24
CALIFORNIA
27
VIRGINIA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Virginia Tech Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Virginia Tech Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Virginia Tech (-6) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
B
Sim Virginia Tech (-6) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.0
B
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2025 CAL @ VT 34 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +109.3% more
Virginia Tech: 172.7 vs California: 82.5
Total Yards (L5) +11.3% more
Virginia Tech: 355.3 vs California: 319.2
Turnovers (L5) +35.1% more
California: 1.5 vs Virginia Tech: 1.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
California: 0.4 vs Virginia Tech: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAL Score 16.0 34
VT Score 25.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 19.7 24.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 172.7 / 82.5 357.0 / 39.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 355.3 / 319.2 476.0 / 325.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
VT Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.4 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
VT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.4 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.3
VT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VT
CAL
VT
CAL
ML
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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