Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Missouri St @ New Mexico St MOST @ NMSU

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

3-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Wed, Oct 22 • 9:00 PM ET
Aggie Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

3-3  |  Home

17
Key Game
Yousef Obeid
KEY GAME

Yousef Obeid

#36 | Place kicker
@
TJ Pride
KEY GAME

TJ Pride

#7 | Wide Receiver
Player
Yousef Obeid None-None
TJ Pride None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI ST
100%
📊
NEW MEXICO ST
0%
MISSOURI ST --
NEW MEXICO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (New Mexico State)
Missouri StMOST (-3.5) 0 New Mexico StNMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri St Cover

30.9%

New Mexico St Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NMSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

MOST By 1-6 points

12.9%

MOST By 7-13 points

9.6%

NMSU By 1-6 points

16.5%

NMSU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
MISSOURI STATE
46
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
20
MISSOURI STATE
27
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI New Mexico St Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim New Mexico St Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI New Mexico St (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim New Mexico St (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 85.0
B
Sim u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 22, 2025 MOST @ NMSU 24 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +82.0% more
New Mexico State: 1.6 vs Missouri State: 0.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +24.0% more
New Mexico State: 0.5 vs Missouri State: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.8% more
Missouri State: 110.0 vs New Mexico State: 97.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 39.0 24
NMSU Score 46.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 19.2 20.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 97.1 / 110.0 82.0 / 126.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.3 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 350.6 / 368.7 289.0 / 409.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.8 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
NMSU Advantage
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
NMSU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
NMSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
MOST
NMSU
MOST
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
83% 5-1
100% 4-0
ATS
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
67% 4-2
50% 2-2
TTL
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
50% 3-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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