Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Alabama @ Georgia St USA @ GAST

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

1-6  |  Road

38
FINAL
Thu, Oct 23 • 7:30 PM ET
Center Parc Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

1-6  |  Home

31
Key Game
Aleksi Pulkkinen
KEY GAME

Aleksi Pulkkinen

#40 | Punter
@
Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson
KEY GAME

Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson

#1 | Defensive End
Player
Aleksi Pulkkinen None-None
Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH ALABAMA
0%
📊
GEORGIA ST
100%
SOUTH ALABAMA --
GEORGIA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
81.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (South Alabama)
South AlabamaUSA (-3.5) 0 Georgia StGAST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Alabama Cover

91.3%

Georgia St Cover

8.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USA -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)

USA By 1-6 points

9.3%

USA By 7-13 points

16.1%

GAST By 1-6 points

4.8%

GAST By 7-13 points

2.4%

AI Model Projected Score
50
SOUTH ALABAMA
31
GEORGIA STATE
Simulated Score
31
SOUTH ALABAMA
27
GEORGIA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Alabama Win
0% Win Prob
A
Sim South Alabama Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Alabama (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
A
Sim South Alabama (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o53.5 Win
Proj Total: 81.0
A
Sim o53.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 23, 2025 USA @ GAST 38 - 31
Nov 21, 2020 GAST @ USA 31 - 14
Nov 23, 2019 USA @ GAST 15 - 28
Oct 26, 2017 USA @ GAST 13 - 21
Oct 29, 2016 GAST @ USA 10 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.5% more
South Alabama: 199.4 vs Georgia State: 108.6
Turnovers (L5) +30.0% more
Georgia State: 1.1 vs South Alabama: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +18.8% more
Georgia State: 21.8 vs South Alabama: 18.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Georgia State: 0.5 vs South Alabama: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 50.0 38
GAST Score 31.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 18.3 23.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 108.6 / 199.4 199.0 / 188.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.46 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 377.2 / 350.4 440.0 / 468.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
GAST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
GAST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.3
GAST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
USA
GAST
USA
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
TTL
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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