Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ole Miss @ Georgia MISS @ UGA

OLE MISS

OLE MISSMISS

6-0  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 3:30 PM ET
Sanford Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA

GEORGIAUGA

5-1  |  Home

43
Key Game
Joenel Aguero
KEY GAME

Joenel Aguero

#6 | Safety
@
Josh Horton
KEY GAME

Josh Horton

#81 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Joenel Aguero None-None
Josh Horton None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OLE MISS
0%
📊
GEORGIA
100%
OLE MISS --
GEORGIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Ole Miss)
Ole MissMISS (-3.5) 0 GeorgiaUGA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ole Miss Cover

97.7%

Georgia Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MISS -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

MISS By 1-6 points

3.8%

MISS By 7-13 points

8.8%

UGA By 1-6 points

1.4%

UGA By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
OLE MISS
11
GEORGIA
Simulated Score
20
OLE MISS
31
GEORGIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ole Miss Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Georgia Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ole Miss (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Georgia (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 1, 2026 MISS @ UGA 39 - 34
Oct 18, 2025 MISS @ UGA 35 - 43
Nov 9, 2024 UGA @ MISS 10 - 28
Nov 11, 2023 MISS @ UGA 17 - 52
Sep 24, 2016 UGA @ MISS 14 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +22.6% more
Ole Miss: 485.2 vs Georgia: 375.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.2% more
Ole Miss: 188.4 vs Georgia: 152.2
Turnovers (L5) +14.5% more
Ole Miss: 1.2 vs Georgia: 1.1
First Downs (L5) +10.1% more
Ole Miss: 25.3 vs Georgia: 22.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MISS Score 39.0 35
UGA Score 11.0 43
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.8 / 25.3 34.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 152.2 / 188.4 221.0 / 88.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.56
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 375.7 / 485.2 510.0 / 351.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MISS
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
UGA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 38.0 ATS +/-: +7.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MISS
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
UGA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 38.0 ATS +/-: +7.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MISS
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +8.3
UGA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +12.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UGA
MISS
UGA
MISS
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
TTL
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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