Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ohio State @ Wisconsin OSU @ WIS

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

6-0  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 3:30 PM ET
Camp Randall Stadium
View Odds Details →

WISCONSIN

WISCONSINWIS

2-4  |  Home

0
Key Game
Christian Alliegro
KEY GAME

Christian Alliegro

#14 | Linebacker
@
Nicolas Clayton
KEY GAME

Nicolas Clayton

#12 | Linebacker
Player
Christian Alliegro None-None
Nicolas Clayton None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OHIO STATE
0%
📊
WISCONSIN
100%
OHIO STATE --
WISCONSIN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
WISCONSIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Ohio StateOSU (-3.5) 0 WisconsinWIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ohio State Cover

30.9%

Wisconsin Cover

69.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WIS +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIS)

OSU By 1-6 points

16.5%

OSU By 7-13 points

19.3%

WIS By 1-6 points

12.9%

WIS By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
46
OHIO STATE
39
WISCONSIN
Simulated Score
17
OHIO STATE
35
WISCONSIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ohio State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Wisconsin Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wisconsin (+25.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
C
Sim Wisconsin (+25.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 OSU @ WIS 34 - 0
Oct 28, 2023 OSU @ WIS 24 - 10
Sep 24, 2022 WIS @ OSU 21 - 52
Dec 7, 2019 OSU @ WIS 34 - 21
Oct 26, 2019 WIS @ OSU 7 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +34.2% more
Ohio State: 393.8 vs Wisconsin: 259.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.3% more
Ohio State: 144.3 vs Wisconsin: 103.4
First Downs (L5) +27.7% more
Ohio State: 20.9 vs Wisconsin: 15.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +24.0% more
Ohio State: 0.6 vs Wisconsin: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OSU Score 46.0 34
WIS Score 39.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.1 / 20.9 9.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 103.4 / 144.3 95.0 / 98.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.6 0.18 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 259.0 / 393.8 144.0 / 491.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OSU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
WIS
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
WIS
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
OSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
WIS
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIS
OSU
WIS
OSU
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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