Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Pitt @ Syracuse PITT @ SYR

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

4-2  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 7:30 PM ET
JMA Wireless Dome
View Odds Details →

SYRACUSE

SYRACUSESYR

3-3  |  Home

13
Key Game
Tony Kinsler
KEY GAME

Tony Kinsler

#2 | Wide Receiver
@
Tylik Hill
KEY GAME

Tylik Hill

#20 | Running Back
Player
Tony Kinsler None-None
Tylik Hill None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PITT
100%
📊
SYRACUSE
0%
PITT --
SYRACUSE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
SYRACUSE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Syracuse)
PittPITT (-3.5) 0 SyracuseSYR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pitt Cover

30.9%

Syracuse Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SYR -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SYR)

PITT By 1-6 points

12.9%

PITT By 7-13 points

9.6%

SYR By 1-6 points

16.5%

SYR By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
PITTSBURGH
46
SYRACUSE
Simulated Score
20
PITTSBURGH
27
SYRACUSE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Syracuse Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Syracuse Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Syracuse (+10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Syracuse (+10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 SYR @ PITT 13 - 27
Oct 18, 2025 PITT @ SYR 30 - 13
Oct 24, 2024 SYR @ PITT 13 - 41
Nov 11, 2023 PITT @ SYR 13 - 28
Nov 5, 2022 SYR @ PITT 9 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +17.0% more
Syracuse: 2.1 vs Pittsburgh: 1.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.1% more
Pittsburgh: 134.5 vs Syracuse: 112.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PITT Score 39.0 30
SYR Score 46.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 22.6 13.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 112.8 / 134.5 76.0 / 115.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 417.1 / 438.4 212.0 / 255.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 1.8 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PITT Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
SYR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PITT Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
SYR
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
PITT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.5
SYR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SYR
PITT
SYR
PITT
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
TTL
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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