Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tennessee @ Alabama TENN @ ALA

TENNESSEE

TENNESSEETENN

5-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 7:30 PM ET
Bryant-Denny Stadium
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

ALABAMAALA

5-1  |  Home

37
Key Game
Jackson Ross
KEY GAME

Jackson Ross

#98 | Punter
@
Dre Kirkpatrick Jr.
KEY GAME

Dre Kirkpatrick Jr.

#21 | Defensive Back
Player
Jackson Ross None-None
Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TENNESSEE
100%
📊
ALABAMA
0%
TENNESSEE --
ALABAMA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Alabama)
TennesseeTENN (-3.5) 0 AlabamaALA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tennessee Cover

30.9%

Alabama Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ALA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

TENN By 1-6 points

12.9%

TENN By 7-13 points

9.6%

ALA By 1-6 points

16.5%

ALA By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
TENNESSEE
46
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
28
TENNESSEE
31
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Alabama Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Alabama Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Alabama (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Alabama (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim o58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 TENN @ ALA 20 - 37
Oct 19, 2024 ALA @ TENN 17 - 24
Oct 21, 2023 TENN @ ALA 20 - 34
Oct 15, 2022 ALA @ TENN 49 - 52
Oct 23, 2021 TENN @ ALA 24 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Time of Possession (L5) +15.0% more
Alabama: 0.6 vs Tennessee: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +42.5% more
Tennessee: 1.3 vs Alabama: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +38.8% more
Tennessee: 210.1 vs Alabama: 128.6
Total Yards (L5) +17.9% more
Tennessee: 492.9 vs Alabama: 404.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TENN Score 39.0 20
ALA Score 46.0 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.2 / 24.7 23.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 128.6 / 210.1 120.0 / 142.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.45 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.4 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 404.5 / 492.9 373.0 / 410.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TENN
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
ALA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TENN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
ALA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.5
ALA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +16.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
TENN
ALA
TENN
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
ATS
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
100% 5-0
TTL
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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