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USC

USCUSC

5-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 7:30 PM ET
Notre Dame Stadium
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

4-2  |  Home

34
Key Game
Ryon Sayeri
KEY GAME

Ryon Sayeri

#48 | Punter
@
Teddy Rezac
KEY GAME

Teddy Rezac

#35 | Linebacker
Player
Ryon Sayeri None-None
Teddy Rezac None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
USC
0%
📊
NOTRE DAME
100%
USC --
NOTRE DAME --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
USC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (USC)
USCUSC (-3.5) 0 Notre DameND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

USC Cover

97.7%

Notre Dame Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USC -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)

USC By 1-6 points

3.8%

USC By 7-13 points

8.8%

ND By 1-6 points

1.4%

ND By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
USC
11
NOTRE DAME
Simulated Score
27
USC
31
NOTRE DAME
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI USC Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Notre Dame Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI USC (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Notre Dame (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u60.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim u60.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 USC @ ND 24 - 34
Nov 30, 2024 ND @ USC 49 - 35
Oct 14, 2023 USC @ ND 20 - 48
Nov 26, 2022 ND @ USC 27 - 38
Oct 23, 2021 USC @ ND 16 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +35.7% more
USC: 1.5 vs Notre Dame: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.9% more
USC: 205.8 vs Notre Dame: 173.1
First Downs (L5) +8.5% more
USC: 25.8 vs Notre Dame: 23.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USC Score 39.0 24
ND Score 11.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.6 / 25.8 23.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 173.1 / 205.8 306.0 / 68.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.27 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 468.7 / 509.2 442.0 / 396.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.5 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: -7.3
ND Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: -7.3
ND Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.7
ND
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
USC
ND
USC
ML
100% 5-0
100% 6-0
100% 5-0
83% 5-1
ATS
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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