Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisville @ Miami LOU @ MIA

LOUISVILLE

LOUISVILLELOU

4-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Fri, Oct 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

5-0  |  Home

21
Key Game
Braxton Jennings
KEY GAME

Braxton Jennings

#32 | Running Back
@
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
Player
Braxton Jennings None-None
Dylan Joyce None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISVILLE
0%
📊
MIAMI
100%
LOUISVILLE --
MIAMI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Louisville)
LouisvilleLOU (-3.5) 0 MiamiMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisville Cover

97.7%

Miami Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LOU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

LOU By 1-6 points

3.8%

LOU By 7-13 points

8.8%

MIA By 1-6 points

1.4%

MIA By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
LOUISVILLE
11
MIAMI
Simulated Score
24
LOUISVILLE
27
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Louisville Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Miami Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Louisville (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
B
Sim Miami (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2025 LOU @ MIA 24 - 21
Oct 19, 2024 MIA @ LOU 52 - 45
Nov 18, 2023 LOU @ MIA 38 - 31
Sep 19, 2020 MIA @ LOU 47 - 34
Nov 9, 2019 LOU @ MIA 27 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +46.1% more
Louisville: 1.4 vs Miami: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +53.1% more
Miami: 160.3 vs Louisville: 104.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LOU Score 39.0 24
MIA Score 11.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.1 / 22.2 15.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 160.3 / 104.7 63.0 / 119.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 417.2 / 398.4 334.0 / 367.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.4 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
MIA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
MIA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +11.1
MIA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
LOU
MIA
LOU
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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