OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
2-2 | Road
116
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
3-0 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
BUCKS
100%
THUNDER
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
OKC By 1-7 points
27.0%
OKC By 8-14 points
19.1%
MIL By 1-7 points
22.5%
MIL By 8-14 points
11.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
114.29
OKLAHOMA CITY
Milwaukee
111.92
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
Milwaukee
115
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Thunder (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.4
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 226.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
MIL @ OKC
110 - 93
Jan 21, 2026
OKC @ MIL
122 - 102
Oct 14, 2025
OKC @ MIL
116 - 112
Mar 16, 2025
OKC @ MIL
121 - 105
Feb 3, 2025
MIL @ OKC
96 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+43.9% more
Oklahoma City: 11.7
vs
Milwaukee: 6.5
Blocks (L5)
+41.8% more
Oklahoma City: 6.8
vs
Milwaukee: 4.0
Turnovers (L5)
+10.9% more
Oklahoma City: 16.2
vs
Milwaukee: 14.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.0%
Oklahoma City: 79.8%
vs
Milwaukee: 73.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
114.3
116
MIL Score
111.9
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.0 / 32.9
40.0 / 37.2
Assists
25.3 / 22.2
24.0 / 29.0
Blocks
4.0 / 6.8
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 42.1
48.1 / 48.2
Free Throw %
73.8 / 79.8
69.6 / 76.9
Rebounding
42.8 / 40.8
39.0 / 45.0
Steals
6.5 / 11.7
11.0 / 16.0
Turnovers
14.4 / 16.2
21.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
Advantage
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
OKC
MIL
OKC
ML
64%
61-35
70%
80-34
60%
49-32
48%
46-49
ATS
68%
65-31
73%
83-30-1
60%
49-32
48%
46-49
TTL
55%
53-43
67%
76-38
100%
81-0
100%
95-0
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