Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Alabama @ Missouri ALA @ MIZ

ALABAMA

ALABAMAALA

4-1  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

5-0  |  Home

24
Key Game
Zavier Mincey
KEY GAME

Zavier Mincey

#12 | Defensive Back
@
DaMarion Fowlkes
KEY GAME

DaMarion Fowlkes

#3 | Wide Receiver
Player
Zavier Mincey None-None
DaMarion Fowlkes None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ALABAMA
100%
📊
MISSOURI
0%
ALABAMA --
MISSOURI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MISSOURI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Missouri)
AlabamaALA (-3.5) 0 MissouriMIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Alabama Cover

30.9%

Missouri Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIZ -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)

ALA By 1-6 points

12.9%

ALA By 7-13 points

9.6%

MIZ By 1-6 points

16.5%

MIZ By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
ALABAMA
46
MISSOURI
Simulated Score
31
ALABAMA
24
MISSOURI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Missouri Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Alabama Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Missouri (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Alabama (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 ALA @ MIZ 27 - 24
Oct 26, 2024 MIZ @ ALA 0 - 34
Sep 26, 2020 ALA @ MIZ 38 - 19
Oct 13, 2018 MIZ @ ALA 10 - 39
Dec 6, 2014 ALA @ MIZ 42 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +111.3% more
Missouri: 275.4 vs Alabama: 130.3
First Downs (L5) +20.6% more
Missouri: 28.7 vs Alabama: 23.8
Turnovers (L5) +19.0% more
Missouri: 0.9 vs Alabama: 0.7
Total Yards (L5) +14.8% more
Missouri: 510.0 vs Alabama: 444.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALA Score 39.0 27
MIZ Score 46.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 28.7 / 23.8 14.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 275.4 / 130.3 163.0 / 125.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.5 0.09 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.36 / 0.64
Total Yards 510.0 / 444.2 325.0 / 325.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.7 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
MIZ
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
MIZ
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +16.9
MIZ
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
ALA
MIZ
ALA
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
TTL
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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