Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Stanford @ SMU STAN @ SMU

STANFORD

STANFORDSTAN

2-3  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 12:00 PM ET
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
View Odds Details →

SMU

SMUSMU

3-2  |  Home

34
Key Game
Aidan Flintoft
KEY GAME

Aidan Flintoft

#37 | Punter
@
Wade McSparron
KEY GAME

Wade McSparron

#43 | Punter
Player
Aidan Flintoft None-None
Wade McSparron None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STANFORD
100%
📊
SMU
0%
STANFORD --
SMU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (SMU)
StanfordSTAN (-3.5) 0 SMUSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stanford Cover

2.3%

SMU Cover

97.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SMU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

STAN By 1-6 points

1.4%

STAN By 7-13 points

0.5%

SMU By 1-6 points

3.8%

SMU By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
11
STANFORD
39
SMU
Simulated Score
20
STANFORD
34
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI SMU Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim SMU Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI SMU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim SMU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 STAN @ SMU 10 - 34
Oct 19, 2024 SMU @ STAN 40 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +40.5% more
SMU: 1.6 vs Stanford: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.7% more
SMU: 111.5 vs Stanford: 81.6
First Downs (L5) +18.8% more
SMU: 21.7 vs Stanford: 18.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STAN Score 11.0 10
SMU Score 39.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 18.3 17.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 111.5 / 81.6 122.0 / 75.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.27 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 396.7 / 370.3 369.0 / 353.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
SMU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STAN Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
SMU
1-3-1 (25.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
⚖️ Over/Under
STAN
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.7
SMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
STAN
SMU
STAN
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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