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NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

4-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 3:30 PM ET
Notre Dame Stadium
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

3-2  |  Home

36
Key Game
LaCorian Hodge
KEY GAME

LaCorian Hodge

#35 | Linebacker
@
Erik Schmidt
KEY GAME

Erik Schmidt

#18 | Punter
Player
LaCorian Hodge None-None
Erik Schmidt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NC STATE
100%
📊
NOTRE DAME
0%
NC STATE --
NOTRE DAME --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Notre Dame)
NC StateNCSU (-3.5) 0 Notre DameND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

NC State Cover

2.3%

Notre Dame Cover

97.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ND -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

NCSU By 1-6 points

1.4%

NCSU By 7-13 points

0.5%

ND By 1-6 points

3.8%

ND By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
11
NC STATE
39
NOTRE DAME
Simulated Score
20
NC STATE
27
NOTRE DAME
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Notre Dame Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Notre Dame Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Notre Dame (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Notre Dame (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 NCSU @ ND 7 - 36
Sep 9, 2023 ND @ NCSU 45 - 24
Oct 28, 2017 NCSU @ ND 14 - 35
Oct 8, 2016 ND @ NCSU 3 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.9% more
Notre Dame: 188.2 vs NC State: 172.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Notre Dame: 0.5 vs NC State: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +66.7% more
NC State: 1.4 vs Notre Dame: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score 11.0 7
ND Score 39.0 36
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.4 / 23.8 24.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 188.2 / 172.9 143.0 / 51.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 460.6 / 470.4 485.0 / 233.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.4 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
ND Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
ND Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
ND
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
NCSU
ND
NCSU
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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