Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oklahoma @ Texas OU @ TEX

OKLAHOMA

OKLAHOMAOU

5-0  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 3:30 PM ET
Cotton Bowl
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

3-2  |  Home

23
Key Game
Parker Livingstone
KEY GAME

Parker Livingstone

#3 | Wide Receiver
@
Xavier Filsaime
KEY GAME

Xavier Filsaime

#17 | Defensive Back
Player
Parker Livingstone None-None
Xavier Filsaime None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OKLAHOMA
0%
📊
TEXAS
100%
OKLAHOMA --
TEXAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
OKLAHOMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Oklahoma)
OklahomaOU (-3.5) 0 TexasTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oklahoma Cover

97.7%

Texas Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around OU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OU)

OU By 1-6 points

3.8%

OU By 7-13 points

8.8%

TEX By 1-6 points

1.4%

TEX By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
OKLAHOMA
11
TEXAS
Simulated Score
28
OKLAHOMA
31
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Oklahoma Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Oklahoma (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Texas (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 OU @ TEX 6 - 23
Oct 12, 2024 TEX @ OU 34 - 3
Oct 7, 2023 OU @ TEX 34 - 30
Oct 8, 2022 TEX @ OU 49 - 0
Oct 9, 2021 OU @ TEX 55 - 48
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +8.5% more
Oklahoma: 22.0 vs Texas: 20.1
Turnovers (L5) +41.0% more
Texas: 1.3 vs Oklahoma: 0.9
Total Yards (L5) +9.6% more
Texas: 419.6 vs Oklahoma: 382.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OU Score 39.0 6
TEX Score 11.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 22.0 15.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 151.2 / 146.6 136.0 / 48.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.59 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 419.6 / 382.7 302.0 / 258.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.9 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -8.0
TEX Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -8.0
TEX
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
OU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -8.3
TEX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
OU
TEX
OU
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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