ARKANSAS
ARKANSASARK
2-3 | Road
31
TENNESSEE
TENNESSEETENN
4-1 | Home
34
Key Game
KEY GAME
Max Gilbert
#30 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Jackson Ross
#98 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Max Gilbert | None-None |
| Jackson Ross | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARKANSAS
100%
TENNESSEE
0%
ARKANSAS
--
TENNESSEE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Tennessee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TENN -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)
ARK By 1-6 points
1.0%
ARK By 7-13 points
0.4%
TENN By 1-6 points
2.9%
TENN By 7-13 points
7.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas
16
ARKANSAS
Tennessee
46
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
Arkansas
24
ARKANSAS
Tennessee
31
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tennessee
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Tennessee
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tennessee (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
C
Sim
Tennessee (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 11, 2025
ARK @ TENN
31 - 34
Oct 5, 2024
TENN @ ARK
14 - 19
Nov 7, 2020
TENN @ ARK
13 - 24
Oct 3, 2015
ARK @ TENN
24 - 20
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5)
+18.4% more
Tennessee: 26.1
vs
Arkansas: 22.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARK Score
16.0
31
TENN Score
46.0
34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
26.1 / 22.1
22.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards
183.2 / 192.9
264.0 / 240.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.5
0.22 / 0.54
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards
496.8 / 469.2
485.0 / 496.0
Turnovers
2.0 / 1.9
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARK
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -8.6
ATS +/-: -8.3
TENN
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 21.6
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARK
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: -8.6
ATS +/-: -8.3
TENN
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 21.6
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ARK
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -6.9
TENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
ARK
TENN
ARK
ML
80%
4-1
100%
5-0
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
ATS
80%
4-1
80%
4-1
100%
5-0
40%
2-3
TTL
20%
1-4
40%
2-3
40%
2-3
20%
1-4
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