Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Iowa @ Wisconsin IOWA @ WIS

IOWA

IOWAIOWA

3-2  |  Road

37
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Camp Randall Stadium
View Odds Details →

WISCONSIN

WISCONSINWIS

2-3  |  Home

0
Key Game
Zach Ortwerth
KEY GAME

Zach Ortwerth

#48 | Tight End
@
Micheal Garner
KEY GAME

Micheal Garner

#51 | Linebacker
Player
Zach Ortwerth None-None
Micheal Garner None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IOWA
100%
📊
WISCONSIN
0%
IOWA --
WISCONSIN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
WISCONSIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Wisconsin)
IowaIOWA (-3.5) 0 WisconsinWIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Iowa Cover

1.6%

Wisconsin Cover

98.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WIS -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIS)

IOWA By 1-6 points

1.0%

IOWA By 7-13 points

0.4%

WIS By 1-6 points

2.9%

WIS By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16
IOWA
46
WISCONSIN
Simulated Score
17
IOWA
20
WISCONSIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wisconsin Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Wisconsin Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wisconsin (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -30.0
C
Sim Wisconsin (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 IOWA @ WIS 37 - 0
Nov 2, 2024 WIS @ IOWA 10 - 42
Oct 14, 2023 IOWA @ WIS 15 - 6
Nov 12, 2022 WIS @ IOWA 10 - 24
Oct 30, 2021 IOWA @ WIS 7 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +31.0% more
Wisconsin: 1.3 vs Iowa: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.1% more
Iowa: 150.4 vs Wisconsin: 91.6
Total Yards (L5) +10.7% more
Iowa: 317.9 vs Wisconsin: 284.1
First Downs (L5) +10.6% more
Iowa: 18.6 vs Wisconsin: 16.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IOWA Score 16.0 37
WIS Score 46.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.6 / 18.6 12.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 91.6 / 150.4 127.0 / 210.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 284.1 / 317.9 209.0 / 319.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.0 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IOWA
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +3.7
WIS
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IOWA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +3.7
WIS
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
IOWA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -2.7
WIS
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIS
IOWA
WIS
IOWA
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Wisconsin Badgers Rank Third in National TV Viewership Through E…
si 5 hours, 46 minutes ago
Texas Longhorns Lead College Football Viewership Through Week 5,…
si 5 hours, 46 minutes ago
Michigan's $12.5M Gamble on Bryce Underwood: No Return Yet
sportingnews 1 day, 23 hours ago
Ohio State vs. Iowa Draws Nearly 6 Million Viewers, Tops Week 5 …
yahoo 1 day, 23 hours ago
Pat McAfee Pledges $1 Million to Iowa Children's Hospital After …
awfulannouncing 3 days ago