Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Georgia @ Auburn UGA @ AUB

GEORGIA

GEORGIAUGA

4-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Oct 11 • 7:30 PM ET
Jordan-Hare Stadium
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

3-2  |  Home

10
Key Game
Ellis Robinson IV
KEY GAME

Ellis Robinson IV

#1 | Defensive Back
@
Hudson Kaak
KEY GAME

Hudson Kaak

#14 | Punter
Player
Ellis Robinson IV None-None
Hudson Kaak None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA
100%
📊
AUBURN
0%
GEORGIA --
AUBURN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Auburn)
GeorgiaUGA (-3.5) 0 AuburnAUB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Georgia Cover

30.9%

Auburn Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around AUB -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

UGA By 1-6 points

12.9%

UGA By 7-13 points

9.6%

AUB By 1-6 points

16.5%

AUB By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
GEORGIA
46
AUBURN
Simulated Score
17
GEORGIA
31
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Auburn Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Auburn Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Auburn (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Auburn (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 11, 2025 UGA @ AUB 20 - 10
Oct 5, 2024 AUB @ UGA 13 - 31
Sep 30, 2023 UGA @ AUB 27 - 20
Oct 8, 2022 AUB @ UGA 10 - 42
Oct 9, 2021 UGA @ AUB 34 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +82.4% more
Georgia: 1.6 vs Auburn: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.8% more
Georgia: 188.8 vs Auburn: 123.0
First Downs (L5) +27.8% more
Georgia: 23.7 vs Auburn: 17.1
Total Yards (L5) +26.6% more
Georgia: 415.6 vs Auburn: 305.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UGA Score 39.0 20
AUB Score 46.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.1 / 23.7 18.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 123.0 / 188.8 140.0 / 79.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 305.0 / 415.6 277.0 / 296.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UGA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 38.0 ATS +/-: +7.7
AUB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UGA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 38.0 ATS +/-: +7.7
AUB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UGA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +12.9
AUB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
UGA
AUB
UGA
ML
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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